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Retaliatory tariff and 2018 mid term election: was there an effect of Chinese soybeans tariff?
(2020-07) Wijesinghe, Asanka
The 2018 Congressional election was held when U.S. and China involved in a trade war. The U.S. protectionist tariff s were retaliated by China with tariff on U.S. agricultural exports in which share of soybeans was substantial. I investigate the effect of Chinese soybeans tariff on the Republican vote share change between 2016 and 2018. Using county level election data and per worker tariff exposure variable Ind signi cantly negative and spatially heterogeneous association between soybeans tariff and Republican vote share change. Specially I nd that tari e ect is more prominent in counties where Donald Trump's vote share was between 40%-50% in 2016. Further, I nd a signi cant and relatively large negative association between Chinese soybean tariff and Republican vote share change in counties which ship soybeans through Pacific Northwest ports. The estimates are stable across models which are controlled for per worker U.S. trade protection and overall real wage effect of 2018 trade war.